Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 1.241230 1.408043 1.584651 1.785110 2.005869 2.241104 2.510254
2025-01-26 1.021501 1.251919 1.510976 1.822104 2.183827 2.589282 3.076216
2025-02-02 0.846859 1.118229 1.441268 1.850110 2.349367 2.934657 3.667763
2025-02-09 0.695943 0.990512 1.361601 1.855703 2.487810 3.260347 4.265817
2025-02-16 0.575850 0.883544 1.293468 1.866676 2.632943 3.606305 4.918240
2025-02-23 0.459830 0.763469 1.192086 1.821863 2.701225 3.860988 5.477400
2025-03-02 0.356603 0.643672 1.074074 1.739160 2.709021 4.036046 5.946297
2025-03-09 0.293154 0.572862 1.016529 1.734418 2.822786 4.360983 6.638233
2025-03-16 0.236490 0.502046 0.948337 1.704647 2.896055 4.633647 7.276201
2025-03-23 0.204771 0.468356 0.934602 1.757059 3.095696 5.100278 8.217753
2025-03-30 0.162181 0.405088 0.861069 1.702966 3.124233 5.315496 8.807399
2025-04-06 0.132734 0.360906 0.814023 1.686757 3.209945 5.620664 9.546448
2025-04-13 0.105755 0.316310 0.761186 1.658021 3.279493 5.917055 10.309721
2025-04-20 0.090540 0.294556 0.749368 1.702356 3.476813 6.429112 11.436785
2025-04-27 0.076772 0.272478 0.733206 1.736517 3.659489 6.929831 12.575680
2025-05-04 0.063624 0.247877 0.707198 1.747947 3.802100 7.373322 13.647834
2025-05-11 0.052933 0.226573 0.684641 1.763286 3.952819 7.839494 14.781660
2025-05-18 0.041437 0.198136 0.639331 1.724330 3.996477 8.123119 15.627359
2025-05-25 0.030806 0.167380 0.581097 1.648197 3.959375 8.260644 16.232363
2025-06-01 0.024923 0.151051 0.557120 1.645968 4.068809 8.666074 17.314623
2025-06-08 0.019460 0.133273 0.524835 1.619254 4.124737 8.975771 18.243896
2025-06-15 0.016885 0.126942 0.524773 1.670984 4.349508 9.611109 19.774839
2025-06-22 0.012656 0.109558 0.486257 1.620214 4.348866 9.819564 20.551676